“Possession is nine
tenths of the law”.
Lies, damned lies and football statistics
There is now a plethora of companies producing football data
which I presume is accurate but as I have written before, the only two vital
statistics in football are the result and the league table. Sky Sports News,
the BBC Sports web site and the sports pages of the daily newspapers use
statistics to pad out programmes and columns. They are eye-catching in
tabulated form and easy for the reader to follow. The pundits make a great deal
of the “possession stat” yet Blackburn beat Newcastle earlier this month with
33% possession. On Super Sunday this weekend, Everton (with 29% possession) stuffed
Manchester City 4-0. Southampton outplayed Liverpool in the League Cup
semi-final with a mere possession percentage of 32. And if you think these are
exceptions to the rule, what about Leicester City in 2015-16. They had 40.9%
possession over the season and won the title by 10 points. They simply played
on the break. To balance the argument however, Manchester United’s cakewalk
against a timid Hull City in the League Cup resulted in an easy 2-0 victory for
the Reds, winning the possession battle 64%-36%. Chelsea, 4-1 cup winners
against Peterborough, had exactly the same possession as United and Tottenham
destroyed West Brom on Saturday, dominating the game to such an extent that the
Albion’s possession count was down at 27%. This is the statistic that one would
traditionally expect from a one-sided score line and I am sure there are
goalkeepers amongst you who have scrambled to be first in the shower, freezing
cold on a miserable wet day because you have scarcely touched the ball as your
team racked up an easy victory. So does majority possession lead to regular
wins? Saturday’s results tell us nothing as 3 of the 7 winning sides dominated
the ball whilst 4 did not. I suppose the answer to the question is “only
sometimes…...when you use the possession productively”. It is slowly dawning on
me that I am using statistics to prove that statistics don’t work, particularly
in modern football when there are different ways of winning a game. But was it
not ever thus? How many of you remember England v Poland in 73 when Brian
Clough, sitting on the ITV panel, repeatedly told us that the Polish keeper was
a “clown in gloves”? The Poles hardly touched the ball, Hunter gave the ball away
on the half-way line and they drew 1-1. Farewell the sacked Sir Alf Ramsey, good-bye
World Cup.
Manchester United FC: their
Finest Hour
When a club has won 40 major trophies in its history, it is not
easy finding its finest hour but it had to be at the end of the Millennium.
Ferguson’s Reds dominated the 90s and by August 1998 they had won 4 Premier
League Titles, 3 FA Cups, and I League Cup during the decade. The elusive jewel
in the crown was the Champion’s League Trophy of course but the granite hard
Scot longed to “do the impossible”; win the genuine treble. The FA Cup/League
double had been won 8 times in 110 years including twice by Ferguson’s team.
Since 1956 it had been possible to win the treble as the European Cup brought a
new dimension to English football. Even though Liverpool won this particular
trophy on 4 occasions in the 70s and 80s, they never quite achieved the
ultimate although they were a whisker away when they fell short in the final of
the 1977 FA Cup. Their treble denying victors at Wembley were none other than
Tommy Docherty’s Manchester United, 2-1 winners courtesy of goals from strikers
Stuart Pearson and Jimmy Greenhoff. Back to the 1998-99 season, United had to
wait until the very last game to clinch the League, beating Spurs 2-1 at Old
Trafford. The highlight had been an 8-1 away win against Nottingham Forest when
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, coming on as a substitute, scored 4 times in 10 minutes.
Six days later they clinched the double beating Newcastle United at Wembley
although it is Giggs’ stupendous dribble and shot in the semi-final that
everyone remembers. He left the whole of Arsenal’s formidable back 4
floundering on their backsides from where they watched the ball fly past Seaman
into the roof of the net. Four days later the eyes of the football world were
on Barcelona’s Camp Nou Stadium as Manchester took on Munich in the Champion’s
League Final. The teams had qualified from the same group, both matches
resulting in draws. For the majority of the game, Bayern were in control,
scoring direct from a Basler free kick after 6 minutes, the woodwork and Peter
Schmeichel preventing further goals. Without the suspended duo of Keane and
Scholes, the English side struggled to find a toe-hold in the game and Ferguson
took off Yorke and Cole, replacing them with Sheringham and Solskjaer.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer; the baby faced assassin
As
the clock ticked towards the final minute of time added on, a Sheringham
scuffed shot from a Beckham corner found its way into the Bayern net and within
seconds of the re-start Beckham launched another corner. Again there was a
scramble and Ole Gunnar toe poked the ball into the roof of the net. United’s
first Champions’ League victory since 68 had been secured, as was of course the
elusive treble. You will surely remember where you were on that historic night.
I was meeting our new Head Teacher at school for the first time and missed the
whole game. Hopefully the rest of you saw Manchester United’s finest hour.
Performances
of the last week
Preston North End 2 Brighton & Hove Albion
0 (EFL Championship)
Unbeaten
in all games for 4 months, Brighton were a difficult obstacle for PNE on
Saturday but goals by Huntington and Robinson gave them a comfortable victory
against the table toppers. The centre back’s header came from yet another inch
perfect free kick from Paul Gallagher and Robinson was able to latch on to a
defence-splitting pass from the impressive debutant Daryl Horgan, signed last
week from League of Ireland side Dundalk. There is still a 6 point gap to the
play-off places but North End is edging closer and closer.
Bury 5 Peterborough United 1
Without
a win in 20 games, it seemed a case of déjà vu when Peterborough opened the
scoring after 4 minutes. However within 27 minutes, Bury were 4-1 up, all
scored by James Vaughan. The club from the black pudding capital is currently
trembling above the trap door but further similar performances will ensure that
it remains closed and relegation is averted. As for Vaughan, (pictured below)
he now has 14 league goals to his credit this season.
James Vaughan;
Everton 4 Manchester City 0 (Premier
league)
City
were favourites for this one so what a stunning result. There have to be deep
seated problems at the Etihad and Guardiola looks a caricature of the man who
once bestrode the world of football, his body language heralding an imminent
nervous breakdown. City had 71% possession and 13 shots to their opponent’s 6,
so they have problems at either end of the pitch. Everton however, with home
grown youngsters to the fore, were a revelation. Still bit players in the race
for Europe, but an uplifting afternoon for the Gwladys Street end.
Manchester United 1 Liverpool 1 (Premier
League)
The
attention of the football world was on the North West this weekend but it
turned out to be a “Super Sunday” for London. All 3 of the Red Rose County
clubs dropped points as the Capital’s teams motored on. The Old Trafford game
was certainly exciting, but yet another stalemate. It will now take a Herculean
effort from United to win the title whereas Liverpool is still in the
race..…just. Ibrahimovic however is definitely the king of the penalty area.
Games
to look forward to this week
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur (Premier
League), Saturday January 21, 17.30.
The
big games keep on coming for City but in Premier League terms, this may be the
last chance saloon. Spurs are currently the darlings of the predominantly
London-based media with Kane and Alli in magnificent form. There is excitement
whenever Walker and Rose race down the flanks and Lloris in goal oozes
competence. They will need to defend strongly if Aguero, Silva, De Bruyne and
Sterling can find their form, but if it comes down to who is safest at the back,
there is only one loser. Hopefully City can dig deep into their memory bank,
remember what they do better than anyone else and give Tottenham the run around.
Aston Villa v Preston North End (EFL
Championship), Saturday January 21, 15.00.
These
two teams first met at Villa Park in 1889, the then unbeatable North End
winning 2-0. There was only 1 league position between them that year, Preston
finishing 1st, Villa having to be content with the runners-up slot.
Now 128 years later, there is little to separate them again, but unfortunately
it is in mid-table and sadly, one Tier lower down the pyramid. The press are
still suggesting that Steve Bruce’s side can reach the play-offs so an in-form
Preston definitely can. Saturday’s result will certainly influence those final
placings.
Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic (EFL
Division 1) Saturday January 21, 15.00.
The
relegation battle is beginning to look like any 4 from 5 with 3 points
separating Shrewsbury (21st) and the Latics (23rd). Prior
to Saturday, Oldham’s last league victory was on October 18th against table
topping Scunthorpe United. If they are to escape the drop, they need to continue
winning. Where better to begin than away to their fellow rivals in distress.
FC United of Manchester v Harrogate T
(National League 1 North) Saturday Jan 21, 15.00.
When
FCUM broke away from Old Trafford in 2005, comparisons were rife with AFC
Wimbledon (now in the EFL League 1). This democratically run club was a
sensation from the off, swamping tiny grounds with their huge following as they
soared up the pyramid of non-league football. Since reaching Tier 6, progress
has slowed and attendances have dipped, although they are still the fifth best
supported club below the Football League. They are no longer nomads, having
their own ground in North Manchester and Saturday’s game against mid table
opposition could be a springboard to a late assault on the play-off places.
Stourbridge v Marine (Northern Premier
League) Saturday January 21, 15.00
Stourbridge,
the season’s giant killers, finally exited the FA Cup in Round 3 at Wycombe. It
is now back to the bread and butter of league football and it may just be an
opportunity for an inconsistent and sometimes misfiring Marine side to catch
them on the rebound and grab the points. The Crosby side last tasted league
defeat over 2 months ago and a victory against a headline-making side will look
good on manager Sean Hassey’s “CV”.
Quiz
of the Week (Answers at the foot of the
Blog)
All of the answers have Red Rose
County connections
1 What
nationality is Morgan Schneiderlin who has just signed for Everton?
Morgan Schneiderlin; pictured in a Manchester United shirt
2
Who
was manager of Bolton Wanderers when they dropped into the EFL 1st
Division last May?
3
Which
current Manchester United player is Wigan Athletic’s record transfer sale?
4
With
which club did Kevin De Bruyne sign for on a permanent basis between playing
for Chelsea and Manchester City?
5
The
name of which Manchester Premier League club
describes the exact geographical location of a Premier League club?
6
The
ex-England Assistant manager Derek Fazackerley holds the record for most
appearances at which Red Rose county club?
7
Which
Englishman with Red Rose County connections was voted European Player of the
Year in 1978 and 1979?
8
Morecambe
have scored 4 goals in only 1 league game this season. This was on January 7
against which team from the bottom 4 of Division 2?
9
Aaron
Burns has scored 22 goals this season in the Northern Premier League 1 North
for which Red Rose County club?
10
Who
in the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final in Istanbul, missed a second half
penalty for Liverpool but scored from the rebound?
Post Weekend
Musings
Liverpool
is asking a fee of £20million for Mamadou
Sakho. Good luck if they can get it but I am amazed that they believe
anyone will pay that amount for a French international with a poor off the
field disciplinary record. He was briefly suspended by UEFA for taking a banned
substance (a fat burner) and has only played 56 first team games in 3 and a
half years. The ex-PSG hard man is a strong defender and accurately passes the
ball. He was a cult figure in France where he was nicknamed “la bete” – beast,
but you have to ask questions if he cannot find a spot in Liverpool’s sometimes
leaky defence. £20million…..seriously? But what do I know, because Everton has
just bought Morgan Schneiderlin who
has only featured briefly in 3 Premier League games at Old Trafford this
season. The fee is £22million. Crazy!!
Mamadou Sakho; Liverpool obviously “want rid”.
The
Checkatrade (EFL) Trophy has proved
to be a disappointment for the Red Rose County clubs as its last 2
representatives, Blackpool and Oldham Athletic, went out in the last 16. Only
766 fans turned up at Bloomfield Road as the Seasiders went out on penalties to
Wycombe Wanderers and Oldham, supported by 149 travelling fans, lost 2-0 at
Mansfield Town. The League needs a rethink about next year’s competition
because the inclusion of 16 Tier 1 and 2 U/21 sides (only Swansea City remain)
has not attracted the crowds.
Twelve
days into 2017, the Red Rose County has its first managerial sacking. Stephen
Robinson has left Oldham Athletic with
the club bottom of EFL Division 1. Having scored just 12 goals in 24 games,
there was no surprise in his departure. John Sheridan, who resigned at Oldham
in June to go to Notts County where he was sacked a week ago, returns to
replace him. Confused? It’s the old managerial merry-go-round, turning,
turning, turning.
So
Burnley made a profit of €40million
for 2015, a year which began with relegation from the Premier League and ended
with Sean Dyche preparing the team to challenge for and ultimately achieve a
return to the top division in the following May. It’s a good financial
performance from a club which for years has kept its feet firmly on the ground,
enabling it to remain stable in the tumultuously crazy world of professional
football. The standout statistic however is that their profit margin was the
fifth highest for the whole of Europe. And still on Burnley, Joey Barton comes
back to Turf Moor, comes on as sub and scores the winner against Southampton. I
wonder what odds the bookies gave him on that bet.
There
was encouraging Red Rose County news from the non-league world on Saturday,
starting with Barrow defeating
Matlock Town 3-2 to reach the last 16 of the FA Trophy. In the Northern Premier
League 1 North, Burscough beat
Brighouse 2-1, their second victory on the bounce to harbour hopes that they
may complete the great escape from the foot of the table. Lancaster City is now 6 points clear at the top following a 3-1 win
at Scarborough Athletic. Colne won
2-1 at 2nd placed Ossett Town with an injury time winner to move up
to 8th in the league and Prescot
Cables hammered Ossett Albion 5-0 to move away from the relegation zone. In
the North West Counties Premier Division, Red Rose clubs Bootle and Atherton
Collieries are now 1st and 2nd, with the Wigan side
slight favourites for promotion. Finally in the West Cheshire League, Liverpool
side Mossley Hill are now the league
leaders.
Tier 11 Club of the Week
Royton
Town; more entertaining than Manchester United?
Lying between Oldham and Rochdale in the
foothills of the Pennines, Royton is an ex-cotton mill town with a population
of around 20,000. Their football team was promoted to the Manchester Premier
League in 2002 and it has been champions once and runners-up once - last season.
The good form has continued, particularly when playing at home on the 4G pitch
at Oldham Academy North in Royton. They are currently in fourth place behind
Wythenshawe Amateurs, Springhead and Rochdale Sacred Heart, having a 2-0
victory over RSH during their current unbeaten 8 game run. In September, when
his former club was going through a sticky patch, The Daily Mail reported that
the legend that is Paul Scholes said, “I get more satisfaction from watching
Royton Town than Manchester United”.
Oldham Academy North; in the shadow of
Royton’s industrial heritage.
Quiz Answers
1
French, 2 Neil
Lennon, 3 Antonio
Valencia, 4
Wolfsburg, 5 East
Manchester,
6 Blackburn Rovers,
7 Kevin
Keegan, 8 Notts
County, 9 Trafford, 10 Xabi
Alonso,
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